SCENARIO #17 "WHAT IF" A Total Economic Collapses Started Today

[RICHFL]

Tweet
I based this scenario upon the memories of my parents, who lived through the great depression and actual historical events in Germany. A total economic collapses could happen at any time. Watch the national news and see what is happening in Europe. What would you do if:


You go shopping and the store has signs on the doors that no credit cards/debit cards will be accepted. So you stop at the bank and withdraw money you need for your purchases. You shop noticing that some prices have gone up 10-15 percent.

The national news shows that Europe has had an economic collapses not seen since the great depression. The EURO is worthless and business are only dealing in gold/silver and gems.

You go back shopping 2 days later, and find that only dollars are usable and that prices have gone up 60 percent, on everything in the stores. The news of a pending economic collapses has the governments working overtime trying to find someway to slow the spin down into total collapse of the government. (Germany 1933 it took 3 trillion Marks to buy a load of bread)

It has been 3 weeks and only the local government has any control left. Most highways are now to risky to use due to groups of hungry people stopping everyone and stealing all they have. It has become a massive country wide riot with the Federal government having lost all control.

They tried country wide martial law last week, which did not work. The military walked off the bases, carrying what they could back to their families. So now the families are a well armed as the enforcement arm of the Government.

So you sit at home listening to your radio (TV stopped working when the martial law degree went into effect). Power is on and off several times a day, until last night; it went off due to no fuel for the generators. Water goes 2 days later.

30 days later: Your neighbors have noticed groups of people moving along major roads from the larger towns. Your local government has set up road block to keep these people out and all females and males (16 to 60) have been enlisted in a local guards unit. Half have horses and are set up as a mobile patrol/reserve while everyone else is either standing post or as part of the town patrol.

Question 1: Will you join with your neighbors, and assist the local governments effort to restore local control?

Question 2: If you plan to BOL, when will you do so (you have a 30 day window)?

Question 3. What supply items are you willing to give, to the local government to help your Neighbors?

Question 4. How long (number of days) do you think a total economic collapses will take place?

Question 5. How long before local control of government can last? Could it expand control to several towns/villages?

[hawkcrewchief]

Tweet
Great Scenario RICHFL and quite pertinent due to Greece's election tomorrow!

1. Yes I would join my neighbors and possibly the local government too restore local control.
2. No bugout location right now so I am stuck were I am at unless I have no choice and then I will be in trouble I am sure. (Yes I am working on this issue)
3. I would dispense charity thru my church and not the government.
4. How long will it take for a total collapse is a good question, with the circuit breakers build into our stock market and banking system I believe it will take a couple of very painful weeks. They being the goverment will try every option they have to try and stop or slow it down which will only make the pain worse.
5. Local control will probably only last as long as there is food, water and real leadership!

[RICHFL]

Tweet
Hawk I have to agree with you. I have 2 degrees in business and nothing and I mean nothing like what we are seeing in the economy of the world today. I use Germany in 1933 when they had unemployment above 35 percent, a lot of troops from WW-1 were still looking for a place in society that blamed them, for the war. Inflation was over 300% per month 1933-35 until Hitler was able to take over completely putting the country back to work. The way he was looked up at during the time is today overlooked. He took his country from the brink of total disaster to what it looked like in 1939. I do not condone his government in any way. It just shows what a very strong and able talking leader can do.

[myakka]

Tweet
Rich,

I totally agree with the evaluation of Germany and the turnaround to 1933. It is scary to see how fragile our economy is, and how little it will take to "break the camel's back."

As to the post, I know I will be asked by the local county commisioners to help if SHTF, and if the state is still functional I will also be involved with a state level response to my local area. The only way I would refuse is if I see a need to "relocate" my family and hunker down. This would be based on indicators of how bad things will get, and based on how I see the local government handling things.

When hurricane Charlie hit one of the local counties asked for help from the state immediately. They had water, ice, and meals being distributed within 2 days. But the next county over refused to let the state in. The local county commisioners wanted to "run" things. The EOC director panicked. The commisioners tried to handle everything themselves, and were ineffectual because you can't work a dynamic fast changing emergency with a committee. So because of their refusal to get out of the way, it was about a week before the same response level was achieved. (And this was because the state came in and "convinced" them by way of national guards)

Locally, I know the county commisioners, and they know me. They know that I respond to "disasters" as my job. I will most likely be in a position to offer advice, and work with the eoc's response. I will be happy to help, but will not offer my little stash of goods.
I won't offer our food for 2 reasons:
A. My little stash is way to small to make an impact in an entire town's supplies.
B. At the end of the day my job is to guarentee that my family survives, period.


I would stay put with my supplies until I see that I just can't keep security here.
But if things are bad enough to go on the road, I will likely leave the state. I have a place about 5 miles from here that would be better that where my house is, but if I have to load our preps, I may as well take us to the best place we have which is just outside of Florida.

[Morgan101]

Tweet
RICHFL: Another great scenario.

Question 1.) Yes I will join neighbors to restore local control. I think this would also include Security to help protect all from the Zombies passing through.

Question 2.) I plan to Bug In. I have to be close to a hospital, which I am now.

Question 3.) I don't know if there would be any supplies that would be needed this early on. If I had to give something it would be extra clothes and toiletries (soap, shampoo, toothpaste), but nothing I felt I couldn't afford to give.

Question 4.) I'm not sure what you mean. How long will it take for there to be total collapse, and TEOTWAWKI, or how long will it last once it happens? My stores and my plans are to survive for one year. After that I would hope we would be back to some semblance of normal.

Question 5.) I think local control could last indefinitely if people cooperate for the common good. Japan seemed to do quite well under severe circumstances. IMHO law enforcement would be the key.

[RICHFL]

Tweet
I will respond this way. Of all the types of disaster we face and prepare to respond to; this one is by far the most likely to happen in the world today. It also will be the hardest to determine if your plans include bugging out.

Never in the modern history have we had such a bad economy for as long as we have had. We are now going on 5 years of no growth at the national and world levels. How much longer will this last? Well after the depression of the 1930's congress set up laws to make sure certain thing did not happen.

1. No bank closure nation wide. The Federal Insurance Program was establish to ensure that the banks had enough money available to cover a run on major banks. (My grandparents lost money when their local bank went under in 1931)

2. The Federal Reserve was established to regulate the amount of currency that is in use world wide. (US Dollars is still the major economic factor of all business world wide) They are the financial cops of the financial world that includes banks. They will be the last resort to stop a total collapses of the Federal Government.

3. The check and balances of the financial system is the Federal Court System: Individuals and business's use it for bankruptcy protection from creditors.

As long as two of the three is still working we as a nation have a chance. But if we lose by what ever means the use of all three then it is time to bug in or out for a few months until things settle down.

We have a small village near our farm that has only 1 store, a county volunteer fire department station, and no local cops. Everyone in the area works together, when a disaster happens; whether it's a winter storm, or flash floods. The key is that they work together at a common goal.

The key is overseas: Europe is now at the tip of soon having to dissolve the EURO financial system, and replace it with individual national money again. When that happens all financial system world wide will react in a very negative way.

Here is this country the economy is tied into Power whether its electrical or fossil fuels we are tied to it. For with out fuel how can we move products to where it is needed to be sold and distributed. But the Federal Government has stopped using any increase in power cost as part of the equation to determine if we have any growth in the nation. Why not add the cost of power?

1. The National Growth that the Feds talk about would be in the negative balance for over 3 years running. Take a look of cost of food. it has gone up an average of 42 percent in 3 years. Most of that cost is due to power - fuel and electrical power cost goes up then everything else goes up.

2. If the Feds included the cost of fuel then your cost of living would be reduced by 63 percent over the last 2 years. If you thought you were in the middle class - Average over 40,000.00 in 2012 dollars per year. If you make less then you are now part of the poverty class.

3. Cost of all things we use today includes the cost of power. The Feds need to redo their economy formulas to reflect the cost of power. Then we would have a more accurate idea of where the economy is going.