Tribal, Feudal, Anarchy, etc.???

[snake35]

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Thought provoking question. I think that the government will be a major problem. Those in power will not give it up easily!

[RICHFL]

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We need look back to the 1400's and the way Europe handled the black death. Whole villages died out and only travelers knew that the village even existed. Governments did nothing to help outside their city walls. If you were outside you were on your own.

All who do survive for the first few years will not trust outsiders and will stay with their own families and villages. After 10+ years I expect that people will come back together for trade if nothing else. Education will need to be enforced up to the high school level so that some day we can redevelop Technology even start providing governmental services again.

[Mangler]

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After watching the response by millions without power during a week of record heat I am sure most people will look towards the government for direction. Even if the most senior "government official" is only the local mayor. There is too much social capital invested in our government for people to simply and quickly abandon it without significant reason.

During a disaster the government assures everyone they are doing everything necessary and more help is on the way soon, even if it is a total snow job (Katrina). But eventually the people will lose faith and patience. A global collapse will prevent real and significant assistance from ever coming, because there won't be an unaffected region capable of sending aid.

I believe martial law will be imposed as a interim step, and the people will comply for a while. But quickly the social fabric will dissolve and the criminal class will expand creating what Kosovo, Baghdad, Syria, Bosnia, Chechnya, East Timor, and now Greece is experiencing. Those that can (fill in the blank) will and those that can't will die. The result will be anarchy during the die off and the re-emergence of warlords afterwards. The warlords will act as a liaison between the local community and whatever larger force emerges.

[myakka]

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After watching the response by millions without power during a week of record heat I am sure most people will look towards the government for direction. Even if the most senior "government official" is only the local mayor. There is too much social capital invested in our government for people to simply and quickly abandon it without significant reason.

During a disaster the government assures everyone they are doing everything necessary and more help is on the way soon, even if it is a total snow job (Katrina). But eventually the people will lose faith and patience. A global collapse will prevent real and significant assistance from ever coming, because there won't be an unaffected region capable of sending aid.

I believe martial law will be imposed as a interim step, and the people will comply for a while. But quickly the social fabric will dissolve and the criminal class will expand creating what Kosovo, Bagdad, Syria, Bosnia, Chechnya, East Timor, and now Greece is experiencing. Those that can (fill in the blank) will and those that can't will die. The result will be anarchy during the die off and the re-emergence of warlords afterwards. The warlords will act as a liaison between the local community and whatever larger force emerges.

What he said.

[Finn]

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I tend to agree with Mangler with a couple of exceptions.

Whatever the causes, it will be the degree of collapse which will most impact the future. Local gov't will strive to maintain its role as both a provider and in dominance. If state and federal gov't still exist, they will attempt to exert themselves over the citizens (regardless of how those folks view themselves). The show "Jericho" went stupid quick, but it started well and illustrates a likely scenario (IMO) for a large governmental & social collapse.

Outlying communities may fare better because of their more self-sufficient nature, but will run the risk of takeover by armed power.

Independent towns and cities are likely to become nation-states in the situation of total SHTF. The control and influence will spread beyond the 'burbs to arable land and water resources. WATER will be a Top 5 issue in the near future.

For myself, I am seeking to gather my tribe and to lightly establish a tribal village (not in VA) before any major issues develop.

[myakka]

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I said earlier that I think the nature of the final collapse will determine how we dig in and/or dig out.

If comms stay up then the government will be able to co-ordinate their response. (Whether that is as relief, or martial law, etc...) but if there is an emp (either solar or by low level nuke) then things will definately be more localized, more tribal.

The key to how the world "ends" (transitions) will be communications. (IMHO)