Scenario #8 What If????

**RICHFL** · 04-02-2012, 01:24 PM

What if the big quake (8.4) hit California in late August 2012.

What if a Cat 4 Hurricane hit New York City in late August 2012?

Think about each disaster happening as a separate major event.

What financial problems would we all face?

What other problems would we have in the other 49 states? gas, food, etc.

What problems would the Federal, State, and Local governments face?

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Now think about both disaster happening within 96 hours of each other!

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Think hard, because all disasters I have been in, and witness to, never looked like it does on TV.

Wither its a riot, hurricane, earthquake, tidal wave, or dam breaking - they were all different.

You need to think ahead, as to what you will, or can do.

Be prepared for those disaster, you know will affect you.

**Mangler** · 04-02-2012, 09:40 PM

An 8.4 quake would cause massive damage to the infrastructure of the area. Roads, bridges, streets, sidewalks, virtually all forms of surface transportation would be damaged restricting rescue and evacuation.

Gas pipelines, water lines, storm water, and septic lines and their pumping stations would be damaged exposing the entire area to fires and disease with very limited means to fight either.

Electrical power lines, cable, telephone, and their substations would be physically damaged cutting off communications. Unlike a localized loss of service this would be wide-spread, so even cell phone service would be greatly reduced if functional at all.

If the quake centered in the mountains thousands would be affected. If it occurs in a metro area millions will be affected.

Even though the state is bankrupt the disaster will provoke additional borrowing.

Survivors will be encouraged to "temporarily" re-locate, but find they can not afford to return. Homeowners already underwater on their mortgages may simply abandon their damaged homes leaving banks with worthless properties instead of devalued homes. Individual bankruptcies would tie up thousands of properties in court.

Small businesses would face similar financial stress. Many would not reopen. Their employees would instantly lose their source of income and have to begin living off credit cards exclusively; starting the clock towards personal bankruptcy.

The portion of the trust-fund crowd that survived would simply fly off to a new location taking an external source of community income with them.

A CAT 4 hurricane hitting New York city would not be enough to clean up that city. But it would cause resources to be drawn away from the worse disaster in California.

**RICHFL** · 04-03-2012, 10:40 AM

I lived in Japan with my family for over 7 years and saw first hand how prepared they were for an earthquake or tidal wave. You can see what happened after the last big quake to the outlying areas away from the major cities. They had practice drills, up to a monthly drill that included all the schools in the entire country. They were prepared as best they could. But still lost over 10,000 people with many missing and lost to the sea.

I lived with my family south of LA for 12 years. Look at L.A. County and the surrounding area. Their practice is to have their leaders use a board game, moving pieces around on the board like police, medical and firefighting support units. IT'S NOT REAL LIFE. Not once did they actively move units to assigned areas to provide such support.

To move the population away from LA area is impossible since it is surrounded by desert to the north and east. South is heavy populated San Diego, with it's own problems and West you have the sea. Where will the people go? Where could the government move the people to? We are talking about 17-20 million people.

Just to get water, food, and shelter would require the use of a minimum of 30 military type bases just to house them (Space) about 750,000 per camp. The Military does not have enough supplies, tents, and food to support such a population shift.

Think about the hazards of disease with such a shift. Medical personnel, supplies, and support systems would be pressed far beyond the capacity to support, thus other areas would suffer shortages.

Once the Federal Government recovers and starts controlling what is going on on the west coast, here is what I expect will happen:

Oil and Gas would need to be diverted to support operations on the west coast. So the rest of us go on rationing.

Supplies of all types would be needed to support operations on the west coast, we would have increased rationing. (Including food)

Medical support of all types would needed to be diverted to west coast operations. You may not be able to get refills of life saving medicines. Triage may take place throughout the country.

Now once the Government has started to get a handle on the West Coast: 7 days later a Category 5 hurricane hit New York City with 30'+ seas flooding all downtown areas, all windows blown out of most skyscrapers, no clean water (Sea water flooding), health hazards (Sewers overflowing), population restricted do to flooding and destruction of the infrastructure including bridges, roads, and dams.

Now you have an additional 20 million people who need to be moved, find shelter, food, water, and medical support. Where will it come from? The surrounding area New Jersey, and New York State will have plenty of the same problems, and will not to be able to support such a population shift.

What I expect:

The President with the support of congress will declare martial law in the disaster areas.

He will nationalize all the national guard units to support operations in both areas.

The Federal government will provide what support it can.

They will expect the affected states to provide the majority of their own support.

One of our problems, is we could be seen as hoarders of food, medical supplies, and water by your own neighbors and government..

**Morgan101** · 06-19-2012, 08:59 AM

Well here I am stuck in the middle with you. California would not affect me. Residual fallout due to resources being pulled in two directions may cause some shortages or price spikes.

A hurricane in New York is of much more concern since my daughter lives there. Communication would be the biggest issue. I know she is prepared because we talk about it regularly. She has no means of transportation, so would be at the mercy of others if she had to evacuate. Making sure she was safe would be my first and foremost priority. Getting to her if need be would be second.

**wac220** · 06-19-2012, 09:23 PM

Originally Posted by Mangler

A CAT 4 hurricane hitting New York city would not be enough to clean up that city. But it would cause resources to be drawn away from the worse disaster in California.

An 8.4 quake would not be enough to clean up the state. Needs to be big enough to remove the bay area from the voting block.

**mtnlioness** · 11-19-2012, 12:14 PM

You scare me. Here we are in November and NY has just undergone a barely Cat 1 hurricane that devastated a portion of the city. Are you a prophet?? Holy crap RICHFL? Wow. Your scenarios are incredible.